Under the influence of the epidemic, will food be another test after the competition for masks?

According to the news released by Sindh maritime, due to the expansion of the global impact of the epidemic in recent years, quarantine measures around the world are threatening the basic materials transported by sea. Some countries and regions directly adopt the measures of closing ports or forcing ships to isolate at anchorage for 14 days.

These measures, in addition to the global epidemic prevention and control bring certain adverse conditions, but also to some extent, some countries that rely heavily on food imports to bring potential food security problems.

According to the information from the market, some countries including Vietnam, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have taken measures to limit food exports. Meanwhile, major wheat importing countries, including Algeria and Turkey, have held new bidding, mologo and Russia have planned to implement zero import tariffs on some agricultural products

It is particularly noteworthy that when the epidemic spread in some agricultural countries is in the time of farming, it may also affect the quantity and quality of agricultural products cultivation and further reduce supply.

Signs suggest that food will be another test after the mask fight under the influence of the epidemic.

As far as our market is concerned, although China is the largest grain producer in the world, it is also facing some risks of agricultural product shortage due to the variety structure problems.

According to the data from the national statistical department, the grain output in China is stable at least 6trillion tons, and the output is mainly concentrated on wheat, rice, corn and other main grain crops. In the consumption of these three major grains, in addition to daily consumption, there are still a large number of inventories. The current inventory of rice and wheat is more than 100 million tons, and corn has nearly 60million tons of inventory, The self-sufficiency rate was more than 90%.

But at the same time, it also causes the shortage of supply of some grain varieties in China, the most obvious of which is soybean. The data show that at present, the import volume of soybean in China is about 90million tons each year, and it is the largest soybean importer in the world, and the main import sources are the United States, Brazil, Argentina and other places.

The latest news shows that Brazil and Argentina have issued a warning that the transport and other restrictive measures taken to control COVID-19 will delay the shipment of soybeans from the origin to the port. Argentina in particular has announced that forced segregation will begin.

Of course, China has the most import of soybean, but it does not mean that we do not import other agricultural products except soybean.

Besides soybean, China is the largest barley importer, an important sorghum importer, one of the world's most important sugar importing countries and an important import country of livestock products

As for this, China storage network issued the notice on matters related to the bidding transaction of frozen pork put on march27,2020, which is also the twelfth consecutive time that the agency has put in reserve meat in a row.

We know that in the past year, the pork market in China has been affected by the epidemic, the supply is in short supply and the price of pork has risen sharply. Since then, although a series of measures have been implemented, including the release of reserve meat, the price is still high.

But many consumers do not know that in previous central reserve meat, mainly imported frozen meat.

In fact, for the global food problem that may come, someone wrote a book "food war" years ago. Only with the rapid development of modern science and technology, especially the rapid development of agriculture in China, we gradually forget the importance of food.

The most recent food problem was in 2007-2008, but in the global food crisis, because of our country's sufficient food reserves, the grain price of our country has been running smoothly as a whole. With the strong macro-control, most grain food prices, except edible oil, operate within the controllable range.

But globally, with the development of the epidemic, consumers from Asia to Europe to the Americas have been hoarding food in supermarkets panicked because governments are implementing strict social isolation measures to curb the spread of the epidemic. As consumer food hoarding continues, inflationary pressures on food prices may be approaching.

Source: Sina daily grain and oil

Another country banned food exports, and the global food crisis could be imminent under the epidemic

On Saturday, March 28, local time, Egyptian Minister of trade and industry, Nevin jamei, decided to stop the export of various legumes in the next three months from March 28.

The decision, according to the Ministry of trade and industry, is a measure taken within the framework of the comprehensive economic plan approved by the government, aimed at ensuring the demand for Egyptian goods, especially basic commodities. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is part of the preventive measures taken by Egypt at this stage to cope with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

Earlier this week Vietnam, the world's third largest rice exporter, announced a ban on rice exports from March 24.

In addition, Kazakhstan, one of the world's largest wheat exporters, banned the export of wheat, sugar, potatoes and carrots in Central Asia; In Europe, Serbia has stopped exporting sunflower seed oil and other parts of its agricultural products; Russia's door to food exports remains open, but it says it will also assess its food exports weekly, which is a key food source for North African countries globally.

Now, some countries have announced that granaries are in urgent need.

Iraq, which has been in the first place in years of war and low food production, said it would need to import 250000 tons of rice and one million tons of wheat in the coming weeks to ensure its food reserves and provide food to its citizens.

Indonesia and the Philippines also announced that warehouses were in urgent need, saying that the stored food could only last for up to three months. If the epidemic could not be over as soon as possible, they feared they would face food shortage. Among them, Filipinos usually eat a lot of rice from Vietnam.

The epidemic is not the only factor in food shortage

The suspension of global shipping caused by the new crown virus epidemic is not the only factor in food shortages.

In recent years, the global extreme weather has increased, and the disease and insect disasters have been in a high incidence. Especially last year, the global drought caused the production reduction in several major food producing countries such as the United States and Argentina. The grass and nightmoth originated from America and desert locust originated in Africa have been rampant in many countries, which has caused more harm to food production in various countries.

Taking Pakistan, which suffered from locust disaster recently, Pakistan food security and research department introduces that 38% of the 30 million hectares of land suitable for locust breeding have been invaded from March 2019 to now, and the occurrence range, number and harm degree of locusts are rare.

Locust disaster ravages cotton, chickpeas, rape, sunflowers, peppers and other food crops. The assessment survey is still underway, but the Sindh agricultural chamber said the grasshoppers around Karachi had an impact on about 50 per cent of the crops.

Countries raise grain or cause food prices to rise greatly

Senior economist at the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) said that food inflation may be coming due to the outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak, and that a global food crisis may be imminent due to panic hoarding of food by people and governments.

Abdolreza abbassian, senior economist at the FAO, said:

This is not a supply issue, and the epidemic has triggered changes in people's behavior in food security. What if commodity buyers think they cannot receive wheat or rice shipments in May or June? This could lead to a global food supply crisis.

Futures prices such as soybeans, oats and wheat have been rising over the past few trading days. As demand for staple foods (especially bread, flour, pasta and biscuits) rises, investors are buying large quantities of grain.

Chicago wheat futures, the global benchmark, rose more than 9 per cent in March. Wholesale beef prices in the United States soared this week to their highest level since 2015, and egg prices have also risen.

Thailand, the world's second largest grain exporter, has risen to its highest price since August 2013.

China has the ability to cope with the risks of the global food crisis

Chengguoqiang, a special professor at Tongji University, told the Economic Daily that if the global epidemic situation is still not effectively controlled in the later period, the risk of the outbreak leading to the global food crisis may be a high probability event. However, China has a solid foundation to deal with the risks of global food crisis while gathering strength to fight the epidemic. At present, the situation of food security in China is in the best period in history. The grain has been well received and stocked in a series of years. The grain supply will not be out of stock.

The perfect grain reserve control system and emergency management mechanism are the "sea fixing" for China to successfully deal with various natural disasters and public health emergencies.

In recent 20 years, China has established and constantly improved the central and local grain reserve system and coordination mechanism. From the present point of view, China's grain and oil inventory is at a historical high level, both of which are very abundant, whether the central or local reserve grain. In view of the abnormal fluctuation of food market caused by various public emergencies and natural disasters, China has established corresponding food emergency security mechanism.

Wangliaowei, a senior economist at the national food and oil information center, told Xinhua News Agency on Sunday that China has achieved "basic grain self-sufficiency and absolute food rations security". The overall supply and demand of grain is loose, which can fully meet the daily consumption needs of the people, and can effectively cope with the test of major natural disasters and emergencies.

Source: All Weather News

The world's largest soybean meal exporter is closed to the country! Soybean meal rose to 3330 yuan / ton, and livestock and poultry materials or price rising tide after the surge of aquatic feed?

The price of raw materials such as soybean meal, fish meal and vitamin is increased collectively. As of March 27, soybean meal has risen by 3300 yuan / ton, and Harbin's quotation has reached about 3330 yuan / ton; The price of fish meal reached about 13500 yuan / ton.

Soybean meal rose 300 yuan / ton a month, fish meal increased 1000-2000 yuan / ton this year, while raw materials such as vegetable meal and vitamin have increased their prices, and logistics cost has increased. At present, the price rise tide of aquatic feed has been opened. Argentina's seal of state raises concerns, soybean purchasing chain or threat

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is not the most serious disease in South America, but some countries have taken strict measures to prevent it. Argentina's horn reported March 21 that more than 3200 violators have been arrested by the national federal and provincial security forces since the enforcement of compulsory preventive segregation. The novel coronavirus pneumonia in Argentina announced in March 19th that Argentina will start mandatory isolation, the latest move by South American countries to contain the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Alberto Fernandez

In addition, an important port city north of Rosario has announced that port activities will be suspended. Three major ports near Rosario are responsible for handling nearly 80% of Argentina's primary and agricultural exports, of which the main products are soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal. In addition, Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean meal.

Xie Yiqin, investment and Research Manager of CIC Yuanbang, told the China times that Argentina, as the world's largest exporter of soybean meal, directly led to the rise of global soybean meal after the supply problem. Among the three suppliers, the United States and Brazil are also in a state of concern. Brazil is the largest soybean exporting country to China, whose agricultural organizations have sought government help to cope with possible disruption to ports.

In addition, recent rainfall in Brazil has blocked soybean harvesting and delivery in the country. The number of cases in the United States is still increasing and business is currently in normal operation. Chinese buyers have bought two ships of soybeans from the United States this week and shipped from the northwest port of the Pacific, the news showed.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia cases in Brazil have risen to 1546 cases as of 16 hours in March 22nd, and 25 cases have been killed, according to data released by various state governments in Brazil. Brazil added seven new deaths that day, all in Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo has become a "serious disaster area" of Brazil. 631 cases have been confirmed in the state, and 22 people have died.

Brazil soybean export to China the largest port is Santos port, Sao Paulo. In 2019, the export volume of soybean from all ports of Brazil to China was 57.7 million tons, and the port of Santos reached 14.21 million tons, accounting for nearly 25%. According to the Reuters, workers in major ports in Brazil are planning to go on strike because of the spread of COVID-19, and the uncertainty of soybean shipment is increasing.

Chen Jing, an analyst with CITIC futures, said he had not heard whether the port of Brazil was indeed closed, but it was not ruled out that there was a possibility in the later period.

The price of raw materials such as fish meal and vitamin also goes up all the way

Peru, the largest producer of fish meal, has also entered an emergency, closed transport channels, announced a curfew policy, and suddenly cancelled the southern pilot fishing activities. Although the fish resources investigation is still in progress, the local fishing and fishing trade appears to be "confused" due to the impact of the epidemic; For China's fishmeal market, with Peru entering a state of emergency, the uncertainty brought by COVID-19 has increased. The demand for replenishment of terminal feed enterprises has shown that the fishmeal market has increased sharply, and the fishmeal quotes have risen 100-300 yuan / ton a day.

In addition, the price of feed raw materials such as vitamins and vegetable meal has been rising all the way, which undoubtedly increases the pressure of domestic feed enterprises. According to industry analysis, if feed raw materials continue to rise, the possibility of a recent feed price increase will not be excluded. Aquatic feed opens up the price rise tide, livestock and poultry feed also want to increase the price?

Recently, feed raw material prices continue to rise, Hubei feed enterprises have issued the information of aquatic feed price rise. Since 0:00 on March 25, another wave of enterprises issued a notice of price increase, with the maximum increase of 500 yuan / ton of aquatic products. This time, Hubei feed enterprises collective price rise, caused widespread attention of the industry, many farmers said: soybean meal price, feed prices rise; And soybean meal price, feed will be reduced?

According to the new animal husbandry network reporter of the treasure of agricultural wealth, many livestock and poultry feeding enterprises are also watching. Some enterprises also say that soybean meal accounts for a high proportion of concentrated materials, and will give priority to the price increase of this part of feed. At present, no information about the price increase of pig material enterprises has been heard. But some industry people say that the price of raw materials such as soybean meal and fish meal will continue to rise. There are feed enterprises in charge of the reporter said that before has risen a wave of prices, and demand has not risen substantially, there is no price rise for the moment. But at present, the price of raw materials such as soybean meal continues to rise. If the price of raw materials continues to rise, livestock and poultry feed enterprises will also have a great cost pressure on fabrics, or will set off a new price rise tide.

Source: Comprehensive Agricultural Treasure Book Aquatic edition, China times, etc